By Robin Hanson
A wild idea is one that many people think is obviously quite unlikely. I'd say at least a third of these wild ideas are likely true.
1. Many times each day, your mind permanently splits into different versions that live in different worlds. The startling prediction of the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum mechanics is that when systems like your mind interact with small quantum systems, every possible quantum outcome actually happens in a different "world." Quantum mechanics is our most basic theory of physics, and surveys of prominent physicists reportedly find majorities favoring this interpretation.
2. If medicine were taxed so much that people only bought half as much, they would be just as healthy. In the 1970s, the RAND Health Insurance Experiment randomly assigned 5000 adults to free or full-price health care over 3-5 years. Free care folks got more eyeglasses and teeth filled, and spent ~30% more, but were otherwise no healthier. This result is consistent with typical time-series and cross-sectional analyses. I'm willing to extrapolate from this 30% change to a 50% cut.
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